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JP Nauaghticl's avatar

Precisely! We need to learn from the corporate move-out from downtown Montreal that was running full tilt long before the actual Referendum even happened. Worst economic decision in decades, and this bunch o' maroons just wanna do it all over again.

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Kevin John Macdonald's avatar

Or a more recent example: Brexit. How’s that going for them in the UK?

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Rwilco's avatar

Yeah, Mark Carney totally F'd them up with money printing...

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Fiona Hammond's avatar

No, actually the lying Leave campaign, the lack of any post-Brexit plan or strategy by the Tories and the subsequent piss poor exit agreement is what has caused the problem. Carney seems to have incredible mythical powers for some people 🙄.

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Rwilco's avatar

Well, at least their lives are not controlled by Brussels.

The elbows up crowd seems to think turning over our country to Brussels is a great idea...

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Michael DesAulniers's avatar

You would definitely vote for the con fence post…

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Nobby Campell's avatar

I’m sorry, are you proposing that an assembly of elected representatives from across a political and economic union is an illegitimate arbiter of the needs of said union, of which we are both a contributing and benefiting party? Your Brussels analogy needs a rethink.

Moreover, I’m pretty sure Brussels has only a passing impact, and absolutely not a controlling grip, on the lives of Europeans. I’m fairly confident that most Europeans still have their choice of physician, of right to own property, and perhaps most beneficially, of freedom to move and work throughout the union… seems like a pretty good deal, if you actually think about it….

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Fiona Hammond's avatar

I think that a lot of people are looking for alternatives to the US right now. I think the trick is to not have all your eggs in one basket and to look for and take advantage of opportunities where you can find them.

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Andrzej's avatar

You really, really think that printing money caused problems in the UK? That may, too. But they were cheated by idiot politicians who promised impossible and disappeared when things turned out badly. Health system? Still underfunded. Immigration? Still a big problem.

What has improved?

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Robin Forbes's avatar

Great article. I honestly believe that Alberta separatists don’t want to be sovereign, they want to be part of the US. Which of course is still a bad idea, as these people are largely middle class and working class - they’d find out quickly how expensive health care really is when they’re paying what was it? $18,000+ to have a baby in hospital? 😬

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Michael Portelance's avatar

So do I. That's why talk of CPP, tidewater & currencies might be off the mark.

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Corey Hogan's avatar

If that's the conclusion of the Alberta separatist plan, if that's the rebuttal that they want to give, they should. It would make it clear to all of us where this goes.

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Michael Portelance's avatar

Definitely—and I hope you didn’t think I was being critical. Your article is superb, but I feel there are Americans pulling the strings, and it will only become more overt as this proceeds. They (the American far right and, of course, the Russians) are experts in propaganda, with division as the objective. They do not want effective government anywhere to succeed, and they want our resources. The AB shitheads are being played. Remember, the PQ were quite duplicitous in their attempts until Chrétien and Dion forced them to be clear with the Clarity Act.

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Rwilco's avatar

We have always wanted the ability to trade freely with the USA without the threat of export tariffs, etc.

We're not looking to force Canadians to do anything.

Trudeau doubled the debt to double the size and power of the federal government. You have to explain how your "economies of scale" work when double the government did not provide any real increase in services.

We will be a true north, strong and free Western Canadian republic.

The Laurentians want to turn over their sovereignty to Brussels.

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Andrzej's avatar

If you think the landlocked Alberta with its 5 million population and not much in resources apart from energy will be freely trading with 300 million neighbour - I think you are naive at best.

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Rwilco's avatar

We're already embargoed.

At least we'd be able to trade directly with the Americans.

Also - is Canada ready to cut BC off from the rest of the country? I doubt it.

Besides, Canada and the USA are both signatories to international treaties that guarantee movement of goods for landlocked countries.

Switzerland and Vietnam - which is doing better?

You won't lose your CPP. You could go anywhere on the planet and still get your CPP.

Albertans pay $7B per year into CPP and $3B back. We can fund a better system.

Note that the LPC have been on record many times saying that they see the CPP as a government asset. That' s why they boast about "best GDP to debt ratio" - that's because they include the CPP money in that claim. They doubled the debt and now we're paying over $55B/year (more than the GST) into paying interest. When they inevitably default, your CPP money will be gone.

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Andrzej's avatar

Perhaps you could ask yourself why Alberta pays so much into CPP but gets so little in return. Ever heard of demographics?

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Bryce E. 'Esquire' Rasmussen's avatar

If Alberta does separate, BC will reluctantly follow. As they will be trapped between Alberta, Alaska and the states. BC currently lacks resources except for some minerals up north, not much in oil, less in farming and it's mostly lumber and it's port, good for human and drug trafficking. As well as imports. Also, China would, if Alberta separates, abandon it's ownership of BC due to lack of market access.

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Alexandra Blair's avatar

North of BC is the Yukon, not Alaska. Canada, if AB separated, could simply build infrastructure around AB to get to BC. Would it be ideal? Absolutely not. Is it possible? Certainly. Further, BC has no interest in joining AB in separation - BC skews much more left than AB. In fact, I never met anyone from BC who wants to leave Canada, let alone leave Canada with Alberta. This idea (that BC will join) is only ever spoken about by Albertans.

As a final point, most of the land in BC is considered unceded traditional First Nations territory, meaning that First Nations people never ceded or legally signed away their lands to the Crown or to Canada. Even for Alberta, we have federal treaties that were signed PRIOR to Alberta's existence. Those who think we can simply abandon our treaties and craft our own country are profoundly ignorant to the actual situation. It's a farce if a referendum is held over something we actually cannot do.

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Bryce E. 'Esquire' Rasmussen's avatar

As for those Albertan treaties, the land, most of it, was actually ceded to the provincial government long ago. The only way the natives can do anything is to try and take it to court and stop it long enough for Ottawa to try and think up something.

As for BC, recall that a proposed pipeline was not stopped because the natives had that much power, but largely because some bands allowed the pipes to go through for some pay off, and other bands didn’t and they were all fighting each other.

As far as land claims, we are discovering that as far back as the treaties, many of them lied about what they supposedly owned anyways. They only have as much say and power as the government pays them to have.

If BC sees Alberta making big gains through separation, yeah, they are going to want a piece of that.

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Bryce E. 'Esquire' Rasmussen's avatar

Oh be pissy. Alaska is northwest. I know that. As for joining, it’s not about whether it wants to. BTW, the interior is almost entirely conservative now. Conservatives started at zero and got nearly neck and neck. I think by one or two seats. And some have made noise on X about joining Alberta. The only Liberal leftist NDP part is Vancouver.

It’s about what I said. The only real economy BC has are it’s ports, mostly run by Hell’s Angels thus trafficking of all kinds, and lumber. Alberta separates, they may just charge tariffs for transport. Alberta doesn’t want the trafficking, which goes down to the states, but also through Alberta.

Guarantee that Alberta will slap heavy tariffs on BC and guess what, other than trafficking, America doesn’t want anything BC has to offer.

Except maybe pot.

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Andrzej's avatar

Perhaps you could ask yourself why Alberta pays so much into CPP gets so little. Ever heard of demographics?

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Arlene Holberton's avatar

Alberta does not pay into CPP. Individual citizens pay into CPP and get a return depending on how much they invested in CPP. Alberta, the province, has nothing to do with payment or returns.

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Andrzej's avatar

Im well aware that the province of Alberta doesn’t pay CPP. The same way Alberta doesn’t pay into Quebec’s budget or NF budget via equalization payment.

It is a figure of speech quite often used by people who feel that other provinces take unfair advantage.

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Laura M's avatar

I suspect many of the 20-25% polled in favour of separation don’t have a clue or refuse to consider implications. There should be some sort of standard to vet votes based on subject matter understanding. Otherwise we see the ‘buyers remorse’ such as witnessed in the USA.

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Bryce E. 'Esquire' Rasmussen's avatar

Trump recently reduced the price of prescription drugs by half or more. Ozempic went from 1300$ to 88$. Your argument lacks the facts.

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Andrzej's avatar

Perhaps price of Ozempic went down. I haven’t checked.

But I know that Trump has as much control over prices of drugs as he has over eggs and gasoline.

Prices of drugs are high in the US but Executive Order won’t bring them down.

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Bryce E. 'Esquire' Rasmussen's avatar

Believe what you will. TDS perhaps? Probably. I’ll state what I’ve stated many a time now. First, Rinos and Dems are freaking out because shitloads of their fat money came from high taxes and high pr]k,8ices, so they’re going to lie and point out that “we need high prices on prescription drugs”

Likely corporations are going to try and hold prices artificially high, just to prove Trump wrong. Equally likely for boycotts to happen.

However, inevitably, taxes and prices come down, gas is already down in some states. Understand? The old guard are trying to hold prices artificially high, hanging onto that last vestige of fat cat money. And as taxes come down, the cost of living, it becomes harder and harder for the fat cats and the media to pretend it’s a bad thing.

Canada is a whole other story.

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Rwilco's avatar

This is not true.

The USA has not added territory since 1900. So, not likely a possibility regardless.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't try to get a closer COFA style arrangement with the USA.

All of Canada should try to do this.

Unfortunately, many foolish urban Canadians have no other identity than "not American" and have fallen for this strange anti-American leftist nationalism.

And our health care system ran fine before the federal government got involved. You have no idea what you are talking about.

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Michael DesAulniers's avatar

Truly a buffoon you are…

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Andrzej's avatar

“A strange anti-American leftist nationalism”? You have not noticed what is going on south of the border since February?

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Bill MacGougan's avatar

That we have to even have this conversation is deeply troubling. It significantly increases costs and risk for our country at the exact wrong moment and does so for no value returned - beyond the short-term political gain for a few. The fact that we’ve gotten to this point is a result of shortsighted and weak politicians that have pushed too long and too hard on the politics of grievances to win power. Appealing to greed and grievance at the expense of the very nation through which we have built our way of life is the peak of cynical opportunism.

If this is turns out to be the phenomenon that leads to the end of Canada, through the destabilization it brings, we will be known through millennia as the fools that threw it all away (potentially the greatest country on the planet) for nothing. Chasing a few dollars more or looking to create a more pure homogenous citizenry.

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Laura M's avatar

It damages us economically and we can least afford that given the provincial party presently in power. The attack on green power initiatives and investment for one. The AB voters are sometimes their own worst enemy. I’ve come to realize the provincial NDP are far less dangerous than the UCP… never thought I’d see things this way.

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Rwilco's avatar

It is absolutely imperative that Alberta break free of the Milch Cow.

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K Baron's avatar

A milch cow gives milk, why do you want to break away from it? And why were you married to a cow in the first place 🤔?

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Alexis's avatar

Just an FYI, those companies that moved from Quebec over their Sovereignty attempt NEVER moved back.

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Rwilco's avatar

That's because Quebec had nothing to offer.

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Alexis's avatar

Quebec has plenty to offer, that’s why those businesses originally were there. They left because all businesses need a level playing field, to know that rules and regulations won’t change on a whim, and that the social structure that regulates industry and business won’t be changeable or friable. Something that Alberta is currently toying with. And which will,happen to them too because Alberta actually doesn’t have anything to offer either except oil, an incompetent political party and rightwing BS. Along with an uncertain future which is anathema to businesses.

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Maggie Baer's avatar

Well said, Corey.

I grew up in Edmonton at the same time as both Mark Carney and Don Davies (same school as Don, too!) I'm tickled that both of these guys are national leaders, as well as Calgarian Poilievre.

AB is wealthy, beautiful, and full of social and economic opportunities.

I've lived more than half my life now in Ontario, so I see both "sides."

The whining and separatist talk is embarrassing and an entirely partisan Conservative project, just like the Convoy that chewed up my neighbourhood in Ottawa.

Hoping an adult rises to power in AB sometime soon!

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Janice Dignum's avatar

💯

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Rwilco's avatar

We're not whining.

We're leaving.

As is our right.

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Andrzej's avatar

You know, all of you -10% or so of AB population who have these beliefs are very welcome to pack and leave.

I’m not sure who will take you but it is your right to get out.

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Bill MacGougan's avatar

You're not leaving because most in Alberta don't want to. You're greedily clamoring for what you foolishly believe will be a few dollars more.

Just like Brexit, without the lies and misunderstanding, it would not have happened. Unlike Brexit, seditious success in this case will break up an actual country. One of the most successful countries on the planet. Not just an economic union.

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Becky Woods Sellers's avatar

You are welcome to go.

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Rwilco's avatar

Thank you!

Appreciated.

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Bill MacGougan's avatar

But you can't have any of our land (including that Canadian territory currently demarcated as the province of Alberta). Just go. Be gone. Find your better place.

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Maggie Baer's avatar

Why are you interested in leaving Canada? Where do you think you'd have a better life?

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Andrew Fraser's avatar

Yes you are

No you are not

No it isn’t

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Kay's avatar

I was transferred from Montreal to Alberta after the 1995 referendum in Quebec. Investors and corporations love stability. They hate chaos as it affects their bottom line re investment and growth. I have been wondering how many boardrooms here in Calgary or Edmonton are having the talk … when are we departing the province and which province will be move to? The head office that moved me has offices across Canada as we are the railway so a head office move and transfer out of thousands of employees or maybe even termination of thousands of employees couid be in the cards. When they announced the move of our HQ out of Montreal employees were not even informed before they announced it to the media. We had no idea and were shocked because the referendum was over but any Quebecer can share that separatist chatter is very damaging to the economy as soon as the words are uttered. Corporate moves, exodus of employees or large scale terminations, unemployment rises, house market tanks as thousands of homes hit the market at once, the tax base drops significantly, small businesses go bankrupt, etc. Quebec’s economy tanked and it took over a decade to recover a little. It will never completely recover because separatist chatter is like a cancer. Investment steers clear and corporations never return.

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Allan's avatar

Only good Tory is a supposiTory. SK liberal here. I am sofa king tired of the whiney maple MAGA, reform, maple Maga Moe's; this is how the stay in power, it is their wedge issues; NEP, Gun ontrol, then immigration, convoy clowns vs. Science of vaccines, dumping the wheat board, long litany of bogus whining to get elected in the west, but missing the votes out east where the population is. Bitching because they choose to bitch. Choose issues that win in the west but not out east then bitch. Look in the mirror, that's the issue

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Brian Lowry's avatar

Separation talk is virtually guaranteed to reduce Alberta from a strong economy with fair prospects to diversify to a solely resource-based economy with no real prospects for non-resource growth (due to capital fleeing instability where returns aren’t guaranteed). And mined carbon is an utterly dead-end resource. Condolences.

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Rwilco's avatar

You're going to have to explain how it is going to be more costly than the over $1,000,000,000,000 in lost investments in the last decade alone.

That's before you consider the present worth of over $1,000,000,000,000++ in transfer payments from Albertans to the province of Quebec.

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Brian Lowry's avatar

It’s a lost opportunity cost — because no one seriously believes Alberta can or will separate as a whole entity. Alberta will end up locked into a resource economy based around a dying resource. No serious economist has ever argued that separatism is good for capital investment, outside of a select few sectors such as resources where the returns are especially high short term. Alberta is killing its own future prospects with this talk.

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Doug Roberts's avatar

Neither Albertans nor the Province of Alberta pay any transfer payments to the Province of Quebec, or to Ottawa. Albertans pay federal income tax and GST, and do so under the same rate systems as taxpayers in the rest of Canada. Stop spewing made up stuff.

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Laura M's avatar

Well when the AB economy totally collapses… that’ll solve your problem of tax $$$ flowing to QB. It’s only the higher personal incomes that contribute to the tax collected by federal govt, nothing more…

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Charity Erickson's avatar

Thank you for this article. The nonsense of this separatist sentiment is mind-boggling. I really worry about the extent of the propaganda machine that gives rise to this. There's a really serious echo chamber for a lot of the people who think separation is even remotely feasible and good for Alberta. We need a lot more articles like this pointing out how nonsensical it all is.

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Michele Moore-V's avatar

This is a very good analysis based on one given that is not necessarily a given - that Alberta continues as a true democracy. There is plenty of evidence that the current UCP government is quite willing to sidestep the law to serve their populist agenda - so much of which looks like the Trump agenda - a separatist movement plays quite nicely into the possibility of Alberta, like the U.S. using emergency powers to further erode the rights of people that don’t agree with them.

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Rwilco's avatar

It is the federal government that does not respect the rule of law.

For example, the federal government has not come to the table in good faith to negotiate an end to equalization as the Constitution demands. Albertans initiated that change quite a few years ago now and it must be respected.

Another example is how the federal government has vowed to ignore the Supreme Court of Canada with respect to the unconstitutional Bill C-69.

You can't give one example of where the Alberta government has done the same.

So, you are actually involved in confession through projection here...

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Doug Roberts's avatar

Why are you AB separatists so obsessed with ending the federal equalization program? Do you also continually demand that the AB govt end its provincial welfare program because you personally aren’t receiving any AB govt welfare cheques?

The federal equalization program is essentially a welfare program for provinces that have less than the national average amount of fiscal capacity, to ensure that those provinces have sufficient funds to be able to provide public services to their residents at an appropriate level. It is funded entirely by Ottawa from its own sources, including federal income tax and GST revenues.

If the equalization program was ended tomorrow, the impact on Albertans, at least in the short term, would likely be nil, and the federal govt would find itself with a much smaller budget deficit. In the long term, once the O&G royalty revenue stream dries up, and given that the AB govt has tended to piss away those royalties rather than invest a reasonable portion in building up the Heritage Trust Fund, as former Premier Lougheed had so wisely envisioned, AB may well find itself back in the position of being a have-not province, and wishing that there still was an equalization program.

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Laura M's avatar

The very equalization program last ‘tweaked’ by the Harper-led government? How ironic… think you’re ‘outgunned’ & on the wrong Substack…

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D Witham's avatar

Thanks for this Corey

Fantastic caution.

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Frank van Doorn's avatar

Seriously, if the malcontents prefer to be American, we can make that happen! Free plane tickets to the US destination of their choice.

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Kathleen's avatar

And then there are the Aboriginal treaties with Canada - not AB ...

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Becky Woods Sellers's avatar

Absolutely. I'm old enough to remember the last Quebec referendum. The Indigenous people there had their own vote. They voted 96.3% in favour of their territories and people remaining part of Canada. If Quebec was legally allowed to separate, it created legal framework for them to do the same. If it had been a yes vote, the resulting country would have been a sad little strip along the St. Lawrence. Quebec has so much more influence and ability to be a French speaking province than they ever would have had as a country.

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Bryce E. 'Esquire' Rasmussen's avatar

The real reason is that Ottawa activated the natives to make their demands. Quebec can make laws the rest of the country has to follow. It also, combined with Ottawa, has more seats than all the provinces and territories combined. Without Quebec, Ottawa is nearly powerless.

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Rwilco's avatar

Canada didn't make the treaties...so right there you have a fundamental misunderstanding.

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Andrew Fraser's avatar

And? That does not mean we are not subject to them If we are to be a just society.

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Jill's avatar

Now if you could just condense this to three words, Corey, you might get somewhere with it.

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Susan's avatar

I appreciate your sarcasm here. It was sarcasm, right? Right? :-)

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Ken Symns's avatar

An excellent and compelling summary, Corey! I hope Danielle is a subscriber 😂

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Twyla 🇨🇦's avatar

She’s unlikely to be interested in what’s best for Albertans. She only cares what is best for her.

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Rwilco's avatar

We're already embargoed.

At least we'd be able to trade directly with the Americans.

Also - is Canada ready to cut BC off from the rest of the country? I doubt it.

Besides, Canada and the USA are both signatories to international treaties that guarantee movement of goods for landlocked countries.

Switzerland and Vietnam - which is doing better?

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Stephen Bosch's avatar

Where do I start?

Did you read Corey's article? The part where he addressed this supposed treaty access to the sea for landlocked countries?

Is Switzerland a commodity exporting nation?

If you're going to demand independence, a move that has the potential to ruin millions of Albertans, you'd better know what you're talking about. Repeating unsubstantiated nonsense you've seen on YouTube isn't going to cut it.

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Andrew Fraser's avatar

Your right to secede is not the same as Quebec’s. Alberta was created out of an existing Canada. You were not someone who brought territory to the table as Quebec, Nova Scotia, Upper Canada, Newfoundland or even PEI. The territory is not yours to take and the rest of the country will not let you take it. Even the oil you whine about is as much ours as yours.

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