PM to business leaders: Trump’s annexation threat is real

That's fine. The first step to getting over a problem is admitting the problem.

Written and posted prior to Corey Hogan running for - and being elected as - Member of Parliament for Calgary Confederation.

A few years ago, I taught a course on presentation skills.

In one of the sessions, we discussed what I call “contentious communications” – when what you are saying is debated or interrogated.

In politics, most communication would fall in this category. Your opponent will explain all the reasons you’re wrong. The media will find the gap in your argument and stick in the blade.

And the first lesson I offered is that a heated debate or interrogation is for the benefit of observers, not participants^[1].

Successful politicians know this. Pierre Poilievre’s actions aren’t to try to convince Justin Trudeau how right he is. Stephen Harper didn’t answer questions with the goal of getting the Globe and Mail to love him. The audience is Canadians – or, more accurately, the subset of Canadians that 1) the politician needs and 2) can be moved on this issue.

But I digress.

Because your actions are for observers, not opponents, you don’t want to appear to be forever on the defensive. You want to stay on relevant ground. You want to define goals, and you want to keep your opponent from moving goalposts – moving from one resolved objection to a new one. You want to get quickly to the root concern, and you want to establish the terms of victory. You don’t want to be dragged through – or spend a bunch of time on – a bunch of superfluous complaints.

This has always been my concern with Canada’s response to Donald Trump’s tariff threat. It’s not about fentanyl, and it’s silly to act as though it is. It’s also not about fair trade. It’s about money, and it’s about control.

Donald Trump himself has been explicit about this. He has - on multiple occasions - said he is going to use economic force to conquer Canada, that the border is an “artificially drawn line”. Even on Monday he said that what he’d like to see is Canada “become [America’s] 51^st state”.

Let’s get real. There is no coherent way to argue that erasing the border reduces flows across the border. If we “solve” fentanyl, the goalposts will move. If we negotiate a new free trade agreement to replace the one Trump himself signed, the goalposts will move. We will have wasted time, but we will still, ultimately, end up at the root problem: he has eyes on our country. Those are his terms of victory.

For Canada to resolve this problem, Canada has to name it. Only then can we properly focus our energy and action.

So whether planned or accidental, Justin Trudeau telling business leaders that Trump has in mind that “the easiest way to [get our resources] is absorbing our country and it is a real thing”, and that leaking into the media, is a very good thing.

Sexton was chasing Trump’s shady connections to Russia for a year. And then...

Because we are dealing with Donald Trump, I believe there’s one other big benefit – he will almost certainly confirm it. First – he’s said it before. Second - he can’t help himself.

STEP ONE: TRUDEAU CALLS IT WHAT IT IS (WE ARE HERE).

Ideally, this would move from private conversation to public conversation. There is a saying in politics that you can’t solve a problem that people don’t know they have. This is why both governments and oppositions spend so much time on problem definition.

The public will not support solutions to a problem they do not believe exists, and the bigger the problem, the truer this is. Big problems take big investments - of time, of money, of interest. People don’t want to make those investments if they don’t have to.

By Trudeau properly defining the problem, receptivity to solutions increases.

STEP TWO: THOSE IN DENIAL, REBUT. THOSE NOT, SET TERMS.

People will come out and say Trudeau is being alarmist. He has misdiagnosed the situation. It is a negotiating ploy and the real challenges are the border issues. Look, after all, at the 30-day delay! Doesn’t that show he can be reasoned with?

Arguments will ensue over whether Trump means it and whether Trump backed down from tariffs because people reasoned with him or because markets showed signs of early panic. This discourse is an important part of the process.

At this point, Trudeau can lock the goalposts. He can put to the critics: “If Donald Trump agreed that he did want to annex Canada, would you accept that’s what this is all about?”

Opposition politicians will of course refuse to be pinned down. That’s fine. A heated debate is for the benefit of observers, not participants. Canadians will be able to judge the reasonableness of those terms. And by naming moving goalposts, you make their movement less likely.

STEP THREE: DONALD TRUMP ADMITS IT

He can’t help himself. You can start the countdown. He could do it from the washroom at 3am tonight:

Please, people. This is not a real post. Do not share it as though it’s a real post.

Whatever the form of his confession, this becomes the point the goalposts are passed, allowing a more unified national conversation. Those in denial will have trouble denying. Those who will have been willfully misinterpreting his actions will find it difficult to hide.

STEP FOUR: WE ACT

Having identified the problem, articulated how we confirm it, and having had Donald confirm, Canada can move on to a more productive conversation. Our leaders can drop the pretense that we’re protecting the border from fentanyl and move on to the reality we’re protecting it from Trump.

Extracting ourselves from that situation can’t happen overnight. But today’s leak was a good start. Our Prime Minister should now say the same thing – to all of us.

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^[1] I tried, to no avail, to get this known as “Hogan’s Law”. Spread the word!